In its latest Short Range Outlook (SRO) published yesterday, Worldsteel expects world steel demand in 2024 to reach 1,793 million tonnes. The new forecast lowers estimated demand growth between 2023 and 2024 from 1.9% in its October, 2023 SRO to 1.7% in the newly released figures. World steel demand is expected to grow by another 1.2% inn 2025.
China, which accounts for 51% of world steel demand, is expected to have 0% steel demand growth in 2024 and -1.0% growth in 2025.
After a 1.3% increase in steel demand in 2023, steel demand outside China is expected to rise by 3.5% in 2024 and by another 3.5% in 2025.
Metal scrap yard on Daikoku Pier (Japan) by Syced, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons
Worldsteel reported crude steel production in China at 81.2 million metric tonnes in February, 3.5% higher than in February, 2023. Chinese production in the first two months of 2024 was 1.8% lower than in the same period last year.
Data from China’s General Administration of Customs show net finished steel exports (exports minus imports) for January and February, 2024 at 14.8 million tonnes, 35% higher than in the same two months of 2023.
China produced 81.2 million tonnes in February, accounting for 55% of world output and rising 3.5% compared to February, 2023. World crude steel production outside of China rose 3.9% on last February. Significant increases outside China came from India (+11.4%), Turkey (+46.6%), Brazil (+13.1%) and Iran (+14.3%).
Crude steel production in the first two months of 2024 was approximately 3% higher than in the same period last year.
Slabs at Novolipetsk (NLMK Group) from Worldsteel Image Library
Based on reported import licenses, US long products imports fell 15% from 332,000 short tons in February 2023 to 281,000 tons in February 2024 (despite February 2024 having 1 more day). The decline was mainly due to lower rebar imports from Turkey and Algeria.
US long products imports in the first two months of 2024 were 16% lower than in the same period last year. This was mainly due to lower volumes of rebar imports (-42%) and All Other Structural Shapes imports (-30%).
US long products import licenses
January 2018 to February 2024
Short tons
“Rebar reinforcements for the stairs at the 47th Street exit from the new LIRR Concourse”, 2019 by MTA Capital Construction Mega Projects, CC BY 2.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0, via Wikimedia Commons
Based on reported import licenses, US flat products imports rose 27% from 548,000 short tons in February, 2023 to 697,000 tons in February, 2024. The increase was mainly due to higher hot dip galvanized imports from Canada, South Africa, Vietnam, Austria and the UAE. Cold rolled imports also rose significantly from Australia and Canada.
US flat products imports in the first two months of 2024 were 22% higher than in the same period last year. Imports of all product categories rose, though the highest volume increases came from hot dip galvanized (+27%) and cold rolled (+28%).
China produced 77.2 million tonnes in January, accounting for 52% of world output and falling 6.9% compared to January, 2023. In other parts of Asia, Indian crude steel production rose 7.3% on last January, Japanese output rose 0.6%, as did South Korean output by 1.5%.
European Union crude steel production fell 1.8% on last January following a 0.9% decline in Germany. North American output fell 2.1% with US output down 0.3%. Other significant changes compared to last January include a 24.7% rise in Turkey and a 39.3% increase in Iran.
Transportation of rolled steel coils on an open loading platform, Aygir station, Russia, September 2023 by Vasily Astanin, CC BY-SA 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
