Worldsteel published September’s world crude steel production on October 24th. World steel output was 151.7 million metric tonnes, 4.4% higher than in September 2017. Crude steel production in the first nine months of 2018 was 4.7% higher than in the same period last year.
China accounted for 53% of world output in September with production of 80.8 million tonnes, 7.5% higher than in September 2017. Asian output outside of China grew 1.4% with increases in India (+2.1%) and Vietnam (+54.5%) offset by declines in Japan (-2.4%) and South Korea (-3.4%). European Union output was flat, increasing 0.2%, with higher output in Germany (+7.5%), the Czech Republic (+59.2%) and Belgium (+16.2%) offsetting declines in Austria (-45.5%) and Sweden (-38.3%). US production was up 9.0% compared to last September, while neighboring Mexico increased production by 0.2% and Canada lowered output by 2.0%. Other notable changes year-on-year include a 5.9% drop in Turkey and a 7.6% decline in Ukraine.
Coal barge transport next to The Point facing Pittsburgh’s West End Bridge
Photo by James Moss
Based on reported import licenses, US long steel products imports are expected to fall 35% from 333,000 short tons in August to 216,000 tons in September. This is mainly the result of lower rebar and wire rod import licenses. Rebar license volumes dropped 60% compared to August actuals due to lower licenses for Turkey, Italy, and Spain, and wire rod licenses dropped 25% compared to August actuals, principally for Turkey.
Based on January-to-August imports and September import licenses, long products imports in the first nine months of 2018 were 27% lower than in the same period last year, led by a 31% fall in wire rod imports and a 22% drop in rebar imports.
SIMA US long products import licenses
2012 to 2018
short tons
Photo by Flickr.com user “tanakawho” [CC BY 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
In its latest Short Range Outlook (SRO), published today, Worldsteel revised its world apparent steel use (ASU) growth forecast for 2018 upward. The revision increased forecast steel demand growth between 2017 and 2018 from 1.8% in its April 2018 Short Range Outlook to 3.9% in the figures published today. In addition, it revised the demand growth between 2018 and 2019 from 0.7% in its April forecast to 1.4%.
Worldsteel points out that as in 2017, a significant portion of the 2018 demand growth reflects the formerly unreported demand from Chinese induction furnaces closed in 2018 which are now regularly reported. So while nominal steel demand is expected to grow by 6.0% in China during 2018, real demand will grow by 2.0%. In any case, Worldsteel’s outlook on China steel demand has improved. In nominal terms, China’s steel demand is now forecast to grow by 6.0% in 2018 (compared to 0% in the April 2018 SRO) and by 0% in 2019 (compared to -2.0% in the April 2018 SRO).
Outside of China, Worldsteel raised its 2018 and 2019 steel consumption forecast for the European Union (2.2% in 2018 instead of 2.0% in the April 2018 SRO and 1.7% in 2019 instead of 0.8% in the April 2018 SRO). However in the NAFTA region, steel demand is expected to grow by 1.7% in 2018 (down from 3.0% in the April 2018 forecast) and by 1.0% in 2019 (down from 1.6% in the April 2018 forecast).
Photo by Chi King (Glass and Steel (HONG KONG/ARCHITECTURE) VI) [CC BY 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
Based on reported import licenses, US flat steel products imports are expected to rise 21% from 765,000 short tons in August to 927,000 tons in September. This is following a 41% increase in hot rolled licenses in September, due mainly to higher licenses from South Korea and Turkey. In addition, cold rolled import licenses rose 20% in September, with higher volumes booked from Australia, Vietnam, South Korea and others.
Based on January-to-August imports and September import licenses, flat products imports in the first nine months of 2018 were 5% lower than in the same period last year with a 23% rise in hot rolled imports offsetting declines in imports of cold rolled (-25%), hot dip galvanized (-13%) and cut plate (-23%).
SIMA US flat products import licenses
January 2013 to September 2018
short tons
Photo by Jukka Male [CC BY-SA 3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0) or GFDL (http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html)], via Wikimedia Commons
Worldsteel reported Chinese crude steel production at 80.3 million metric tonnes in August, 2.7% higher than in August 2017. Chinese output over the first eight months of 2018 was 5.9% higher than in the same period last year.
Chinese net finished steel exports (exports minus imports) in August were approximately 4.7 million tonnes, 14% lower than in August 2017. Net exports in the first eight months of 2018 were about 16% lower than in the first eight months of 2017.
China monthly crude steel production
January 2006 to August 2018, thousand metric tonnes
Yujiapu railway station under construction, photo by ETFE.CUSHION [CC BY-SA 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)], from Wikimedia Commons
Worldsteel published August’s world crude steel production on September 25th. World steel output was 151.7 million metric tonnes, 2.6% higher than in August 2017. Crude steel production for the first eight months of 2018 was 4.8% higher than in the same period last year.
China accounted for 53% of world output in August with production of 80.3 million tonnes, 2.7% higher than in August 2017. Asian output outside of China grew 3.6% due to increases mainly in India (+3.7%), Vietnam (+46.8%), and Taiwan (+8.2%). European Union production rose 1.4% where increases in Germany (+7.5%) and Belgium (+15.6%) offsett declines in Austria (-52.6%) and France (-16.8%). In the NAFTA region, US crude production rose 5.1% compared to last August, Mexican output increased 7.0%, and Canadian production fell 2.2%. Other notable changes year-on-year include a 5.7% drop in Turkey and a 9.0% increase in Iran.
Photo by Idus Druida [Public domain], from Wikimedia Commons, Page URL: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Palanquilla.jpg
