Based on reported import licenses, US long steel products imports fell 52% from 367,000 short tons in January to 175,000 tons in February. Compared to February import licenses, March licenses rose 73% to 302,000 tons. The 73% rise was mainly due to higher rebar import licenses for countries including Portugal and Spain, as well higher parallel flange sections import licenses from Luxembourg and Taiwan.
Based on January imports and February/March import licenses, long products imports so far this year are 3% lower than in the first quarter of 2018.
SIMA US long products import licenses
January 2013 to March 2019
short tons
A single wire rod coil in storage at Kehl am Rhein, Germany Photo from Worldsteel Image Library by worldsteel / Gregor Schlaeger, Image ID 537
In its latest Short Range Outlook (SRO), published yesterday, Worldsteel revised its world apparent steel use (ASU) growth forecast for 2019 downward. The revision lowered estimated demand growth between 2018 and 2019 from 1.4% in its October 2018 SRO to 1.3% in yesterday’s figures.
China accounted for 49% of world steel demand in 2018 and while China’s ASU was expected to grow by 6% in 2018, demand actually grew by 7.9% (after adjusting for demand supplied by outdated induction furnaces closed during 2017, real demand growth was 2.0%). China’s steel demand is now forecast to grow by 1% in 2019 and by -1% in 2020.
For the world outside of China, ASU grew marginally higher than expected in 2018, by 2.2% instead of the forecast 2.1%. However, the new forecast revises 2019 demand outside of China down from 2.7% to 1.7% with revised lower demand in the EU, Other Europe, Central & South America, Africa and the Middle East.
Photo of Guangzhou Opera House by Mr a [CC BY 3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0)]
Based on reported import licenses, US flat steel products imports fell 30% from 839,000 short tons in January to 585,000 tons in February. Compared to February import licenses, March licenses rose 15% to 671,000 tons, mainly due to higher hot rolled import licenses from South Korea and higher cold roll import licenses from a number of countries including Vietnam and Taiwan.
Based on January imports and February/March import licenses, flat products imports so far this year are 14% lower than in the first quarter of 2018, led by a 21% drop in hot roll imports and a 20% decline in cold roll imports.
SIMA US flat products import licenses
January 2013 to March 2019
Short tons
Photo by Methem (Mikko J. Putkonen) [CC BY 3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0)]
Worldsteel reported crude steel production in China at 71.0 million metric tonnes in February, 9.2% higher than in February 2018. Chinese output over the first two months of 2019 was also 9.2% higher than in the same period last year.
Chinese net finished steel exports (exports minus imports) in February were approximately 3.4 million tonnes, 10.1% lower than in February 2018. Net exports in the first two months of 2019 were 17.2% higher than in the first two months of 2018.
China monthly crude steel production 2006 to 2019
thousand metric tonnes
Photo of Shanghai Lujiazui Finance and Trade Zone by Carlos Adampol Galindo from DF, México [CC BY-SA 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)]
China accounted for 52% of world output in February with production of 71.0 million tonnes, 9.2% higher than in February 2018. Asian output outside of China rose 6.8%, with significantly higher production in Vietnam (+52.7%), Taiwan (+22.5%) and India (+2.3%) offsetting lower production in Japan (-6.6%) and Pakistan (-41.5%). European Union crude production fell 5.0% compared to last February, mainly due to a 9.4% drop in Germany. In North America, US output was up 4.6% while Canadian and Mexican production fell 6.7% and 12.6% respectively. In addition, Turkish crude steel production fell 12.5% on last February and Russian output was down 4.4%, while production in Iran rose 21.7%.
Photo by “myself [CC BY-SA 3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)]” from Wikimedia Commons at https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Foolad_Mobarakeh50.jpg
Photo of Shanghai Lujiazui Finance and Trade Zone by Carlos Adampol Galindo from DF, México [CC BY-SA 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)]
Photo by “myself [CC BY-SA 3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)]” from Wikimedia Commons at https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Foolad_Mobarakeh50.jpg
