Based on reported import licenses, US long products imports increased 3% year-on-year from 198,000 short tons in October 2018 to 203,000 tons in October this year. The increase was mainly due to higher parallel flange sections imports from Mexico, South Korea, and Luxembourg. However, lower rebar and wire rod imports offset the October-on-October rise from other long products categories.
Based on January to September imports and October import licenses, long products imports in the first ten months of 2019 were 8% lower than in the same period last year. Imports of all product categories declined, while rebar imports fell by the highest volume (-9%), followed by wire rod imports (-6%), and merchant bar imports (-37%).
SIMA US long products import licenses
January 2013 to October 2019
Short tons
Image of rebar reinforcement for an elevator shaft from Wikimedia Commons by MTA Capital Construction Mega Projects [CC BY 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)]
Based on reported imports licenses, US flat products imports fell 30% year-on-year from 893,000 short tons in October 2018 to 625,000 tons in October this year. The decline was mainly due to lower hot rolled imports, with HR volumes falling from South Korea, Mexico, Japan, Canada and the Netherlands. Imports were lower for all flat product categories.
Based on January to September imports and October import licenses, flat products imports in the first ten months of 2019 were 23% lower than in the same period last year. Hot rolled imports dropped by the highest volume, down 28% on last year, while hot dip galvanized imports fell 18%, cold roll imports dropped 20%, and cut plate imports were down 11%.
SIMA US flat products import licenses
January 2013 to October 2019
Short tons
Image of Renory, Belgium coil terminal at Renory port from Wikimedia Commons by Barcket [CC BY-SA 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)]
Worldsteel reported crude steel production in China at 82.8 million metric tonnes in September, 2.2% higher than in September 2018. Chinese output over the first nine months of 2019 was 8.5% higher than in the same period last year.
China’s General Administration of Customs reported Chinese net finished steel exports (exports minus imports) in September at 4.2 million tonnes, 13.1% lower than in September 2018. Net exports in the first nine months of 2019 were 4.0% lower than in the first nine months of 2018.
China monthly crude steel production 2006 to 2019
Thousand metric tonnes
Shenzhen section of Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong High-speed Railway in construction by Alancrh [CC BY-SA 3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)]
China accounted for 55% of world production in September with output of 82.8 million metric tonnes, 2.2% higher than in September 2018. Asian production outside of China fell 1.2% due to declines in Japan (-4.5%), Thailand (-34.1%), South Korea (-2.7%) and Pakistan (-33.7%), but despite a 34.0% increase in Vietnam.
European Union production fell 2.0% compared to September 2018, with Poland down 18.7%, Germany dropping 4.0% and France down 10.2%. In the Americas, US output fell 2.5%, Canadian production declined 11.0%, Mexican production fell 10.6% and Brazilian output dropped 22.0%. Other significant changes around the world include a 6.9% production decline in Turkey and a 4.1% drop in Russia.
Electric arc furnace in Freital, Germany (1980) from Wikimedia Commons by Deutsche Fotothek licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Share-Alike 3.0 license
Based on reported imports licenses, US long products imports fell 6% from 226,000 short tons in September 2018 to 211,000 tons in September this year. The decline was mainly due to lower wire rod imports, but parallel flange sections and light shapes imports also fell.
Based on January to August imports and September import licenses, long products imports in the first nine months of 2019 were 8% lower than in the same period last year, with the highest volume declines coming from rebar (-8% on last year), merchant bar (-42%), and wire rod (-5%).
SIMA long products import licenses
January 2013 to September 2019
Short Tons
Image from Wikimedia Commons by Useradd [CC BY-SA 3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)]
In its latest Short Range Outlook (SRO), published yesterday, Worldsteel revised its world steel demand growth forecast for 2019 and 2020 upward. The revision increased forecast demand growth between 2018 and 2019 from 1.3% in its April 2019 Short Range Outlook to 3.9%. In addition, Worldsteel revised demand growth between 2019 and 2020 from 1.0% in its April forecast to 1.7%.
With China expected to account for 51% of world steel demand in 2019, it is the main factor leading the upward demand revision. Chinese steel demand is now forecast to grow by 7.8% in 2019 (compared to 1.0% in Worldsteel’s April 2019 SRO) and by 1.0% in 2020 (compared to -1.0% in the April 2019 SRO).
Worldsteel lowered its demand forecast for the world outside of China. Ex-China, demand is now forecast to grow by 0.2% in 2019 (compared to 1.7% in the April 2019 SRO) and by 2.5% in 2020 (compared to 2.8% in the April 2019 SRO). And while the steel demand forecast for developed economies was marginally revised downward, the ex-China revision was mainly due to a lower demand forecast for emerging and developing economies where the 2019 demand forecast was revised to 0.4% (-2.5%) and the 2020 demand forecast was revised to 4.1% (-0.5%).
“Cutting Steel Slab” at Ternium Brazil Image from Worldsteel Image Library ID 1013 by worldsteel / Javier Bernal Revert
