If you are following the current debate about steelmaking carbon emissions, you might want to remind yourselves about who’s producing steel through the BOF route and who’s producing it through the EAF route. The Steel Data Room’s dataset “World Steel Association Steel Statistical Yearbook” makes that easy.
Let’s look at the world’s top five steelmaking countries. China, the worlds largest producer currently account for 51% of world output, now produces 90% of its crude steel output through the BOF route, up from 84% in 2000. In contrast, the world’s second largest producer, India, at 7% of world production, now produces 44% of crude production through the BOF route, down from 60% in 2000. The BOF share of the world’s third largest steelmaker, Japan, has risen from 71% to 76% between 2000 and 2019. And of course the real outlier among the top five world steel producers is the world’s fifth largest producer, the United States, which produced 53% through the BOF in 2000 but 30% through the BOF in 2019.
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Worldsteel reported crude steel production in China at 73.8 million metric tonnes, 21% lower than in September, 2020. Chinese crude steel production in the first nine months of 2021 was 1% higher than in the same period last year.
Data from China’s General Administration of Customs show net finished steel exports (exports minus imports) in September at 3.7 million tonnes, 289% higher than in September, 2020. Net finished steel exports in the first nine months of 2021 were 67% higher than in the first nine months of 2020.
China produced 73.8 million tonnes in September, accounting for 51% of world output and falling 21.2% on September, 2020. In other parts of Asia, Indian steel production rose 7.2% on last September, Japanese output rose 25.6%, but South Korean production fell 5.0%.
European Union 27 crude steel production rose 15.6% on last September following a 10.7% increase in Germany. North American production rose 19.2% with US output up 22.0%. Other significant changes compared to last September include a 51.4% decline in Iran and a 15.3% production increase in Brazil.
Slabs at Novolipetsk (NLMK Group) from Worldsteel Image Library by worldsteel / Robert Kolykhalov
Based on reported import licenses, US long products imports rose 122% from 167,000 short tons in September, 2020 to 369,000 tons in September, 2021. Licenses indicate the increase was mainly due to higher rebar imports from Algeria, Turkey and Mexico. Wire rod imports also rose significantly year-on-year from a number of countries including Egypt and Algeria.
US long products imports in the first nine months of 2021 were 31% higher than in the same period last year with the largest import volumes rising for wire rod (+51%), rebar (+14%), and light shapes (+67%).
In its latest Short Range Outlook (SRO), published today, Worldsteel forecasts world steel demand to grow by 4.5% in 2021 to 1.855 billion metric tonnes. Worldsteel expects steel demand in China to decline by 1% in 2021, a 4.0% revision downward since April’s SRO, while it expects demand outside China to grow by 11.5%, a 2.2% revision upward since April’s forecast. As a result, Chinese steel demand as a portion of world demand will decline from 56% in 2020 to 53% in 2021.
Steel demand is expected to grow by another 2.2% in 2022 to 1.90Mt. Steel demand in China is expected to rise by 1.0% in 2022 while demand outside China is forecast to rise by 4.7%. The largest steel-consuming countries accounting for the increase outside China include India, where demand is expected to grow by 6.8% in 2022, and the US, where demand will grow by 5.7%.
Hot rolled coils in storage at POSCO Pohang Steelworks from Worldsteel Image Library
Based on reported import licenses, US flat products imports rose 67% from 509,000 short tons in September, 2020 to 850,000 tons in September, 2021. The increase was mainly due to higher hot rolled imports from Canada, Turkey, Mexico, and the Netherlands. Imports of all other flat product categories rose on September, 2020, with cut plate up 119%, cold rolled up 77%, and hot dip galvanized up 34%.
Flat products imports in the first nine months of 2021 were 48% higher than in the same period last year. Comparing 2021 to 2020, imports of hot rolled rose 85%, imports of cut plate increased 57%, imports of cold rolled rose 22% and imports of hot dip galvanized rose 21%.
US flat products imports licenses
January 2014 to September 2021
Short tons
“A train carrying what seems to be an unlimited number of coils rolls into downtown Springfield, MO.” by Doug Wertman from Rogers, AR, USA, CC BY 2.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0, via Wikimedia Commons
