In its latest Short Range Outlook (SRO), published last Thursday, Worldsteel expects world steel demand in 2022 to reach 1,840 million metric tonnes. The new forecast decreases estimate demand growth between 2021 and 2022 from 2.2% in its October 2021 SRO to 0.4% in the newly released figures.
China accounted for 52% of world steel demand in 2021 and is expected to account for 52% of world demand in 2022 and 51% in 2023. Chinese steel demand is predicted to stay flat in 2022 and rise by 1.0% in 2023.
After a 13.2% increase in steel demand in 2021, steel demand outside of China is expected to rise by 0.7% in 2022 and 3.6% in 2023. Asia and Oceania demand outside China is forecast to rise by 4.3% in 2022 and by 3.5% in 2023. European Union plus UK demand is expected to fall by 1.3% in 2022 and rise by 4.0% in 2023. And in addition, USMCA (former NAFTA) demand is predicted to rise by 2.9% in 2022 and by 2.7% in 2023.
“BSW GmbH, Kehl, 20.04.2016, continuous casting of steel, Badische Stahlwerke, billet cutting” from Worldsteel Image Library
Based on reported import licenses, US flat products imports rose 37% from 714,000 short tons in March, 2021 to 982,000 tons in March, 2022. The increase was mainly due to higher hot rolled volumes from South Korea, Mexico and Japan. Hot dip galvanized imports also rose significantly from Vietnam, Brazil and Turkey.
Based on January and February imports and March import licenses, US flat products imports in the first three months of 2022 were 47% higher than in the same period last year with hot dip galvanized imports +59%, cold rolled imports +61%, hot rolled imports +37% and cut plate imports +23%.
Steel Import Monitor US Flat Products Import Licenses
Worldsteel reported crude steel production in China at 75 million metric tonnes in February, 10.0% lower than in February, 2021. Chinese production in the first two months of 2022 was 11.9% lower than in the same period last year.
Data from the General Administration of Customs show China’s net finished steel exports (exports minus imports) for January and February, 2022 at 6.0 million tonnes, 29% lower than in the same two months of 2021.
China monthly crude steel production
Thousand metric tonnes
“A VR-operated Dr16 class diesel locomotive (number 2806) with freight wagons at the railway station of Tornio in Finland. The two wagons closest to the locomotive are carrying what appear to be rolled steel coils.” by Methem (Mikko J. Putkonen), CC BY 3.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0, via Wikimedia Commons
Based on reported import licenses, US long steel products imports increased 47% from 227,000 short tons in February, 2021 to 335,000 tons last month. Both rebar and wire rod drove the increase. Rebar imports rose mainly due to higher volumes form Algeria while wire rod imports increased following higher volumes from India, Algeria, Germany and Mexico.
Long products imports in the first two months of 2022 were 37% higher than in the same period last year with wire rod showing the largest volume increase.
US long products import licenses
January 2015 to February 2022
Short tons
“Erection of steel Frame Building, Yeovil (3) One of the erectors waits patiently high in his cherry picker to receive his end of the new beam so that he can bolt it to the existing structure already erected behind him.” by Nigel Mykura / Erection of steel Frame Building, Yeovil (3) from Wikimedia Commons
China produced 75.0 million tonnes in February, accounting for 53% of world output and falling 10.0% on February, 2021. In other parts of Asia, Indian crude steel production rose 7.6%, but Japanese production fell 2.3%, and South Korean production dropped 6%.
European Union steel production fell 2.5% on last February despite a 3.8% increase in Germany. North American production rose 1.8% with US output up 1.4%. Other significant changes compared to last February include production declines in Turkey (-3.3%) and Brazil (-6.9%).
Corus (now Tata Steel) plant, 2007. This is number 5 Blast Furnace located at the Port Talbot Steel Plant South Wales UK, by Grubb at English Wikipedia, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
Based on reported import licenses, US flat products imports increased 6% from 640,000 short tons in February, 2021 to 680,000 tons in February, 2022. The rise was mainly due to an increase in hot dip galvanized imports from Vietnam, Turkey, South Korea, and the United Arab Emirates, though it was partially offset by a decline in hot rolled imports from South Korea, Japan, and Canada.
Based on January imports and February import licenses, US flat products imports in the first two months of 2022 were 53% higher than in the same period last year with hot dip galvanized imports +74%, cold rolled imports +76%, cut plate imports +36%, and hot rolled imports +34%.
Steel Imports Monitor US Flat Products Imports Licenses
January 2014 to February 2022
Short tons
“Budaörs railway station (Hungary), ‘Shmms’ special flat wagon. Four-axle special freight wagon suitable for transportation of sheet metal coils. Bogie: Y25Cs. [1] – Raktár Street, Budaörs, Pest County.” by Globetrotter19, CC BY-SA 3.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0, via Wikimedia Commons
