In its latest Short Range Outlook (SRO), published yesterday, Worldsteel expects world steel demand to be 1,797 million metric tonnes in 2022 and 1,815 million tonnes in 2023. The new forecast expects a 2.3% steel demand decline in 2022 and a 1.0% increase in 2023, lowering its expectations compared to their April, 2022 forecast by 2.7% in 2022 and by 1.2% in 2023.
China accounted for 52% of world steel demand in 2021 and is expected to account for 51% in 2022 and 50% in 2023. Chinese steel demand is expected to decline by 4.0% in 2022 and remain flat in 2023.
After a 13.5% increase in steel demand in 2021, steel demand outside of China is forecast to decline by 0.5% in 2022 and rise by 2.0% in 2023. European Union plus UK demand is now expected to decline by 3.5% in 2022 and again decline by 1.3% in 2023. USMCA (former NAFTA) demand is forecast to rise by 0.9% in 2022 and rise again by 1.8% in 2023.
Belts or chains of a pig iron casting machine with the moulds filled by liquid hot pig iron before cooling it with water and turning it into hard ingots of pig iron. Ukraine, February, 2018 by Blast furnace chip worker, CC BY-SA 3.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0, via Wikimedia Commons
Based on reported import licenses, US long products imports dropped 37% from 383,000 short tons in September, 2021 to 240,000 tons last month. The decline was mainly due to lower rebar imports from Algeria, Mexico, and Turkey, together with lower wire rod imports from a number of countries including Egypt, Canada, and Algeria.
Long products imports in the first nine months of 2022 were 27% higher than in the same period last year with the highest volume increases coming from wire rod (+44%) and rebar (+19%).
Based on reported import licenses, US flat products imports fell 26% from 866,000 short tons in September, 2021 to 643,000 tons in September, 2022. The decline was mainly due to lower hot rolled imports from Canada, Turkey, Japan, and the Netherlands. Imports of cut plate, cold rolled and hot dip galvanized product categories also declined.
Based on January to August imports and September import licenses, US flat products imports in the first nine months of 2022 were 11% higher than in the same period last year with cold rolled +24%, hot dip galvanized +13%, cut plate +7% and hot rolled +6%.
US flat products import licenses from US Steel Import Monitor
January 2015 to September 2022
Short tons
Rolling process at NLMK Verona (NLMK Group) from Worldsteel Image Library ID: 31698
Worldsteel reported crude steel production in China at 83.9 million metric tonnes in August, 0.5% higher than in August, 2021. Chinese production in the first eight months of 2022 was 5.7% lower than in the same period last year.
Data from China’s General Administration of Customs show China’s net finished steel exports (exports minus imports) at 5.3 million tonnes in August, 32% higher than in August, 2021. Net finished steel exports over the first eight months of 2022 were 0.5% higher than in the first eight months of 2021.
China produced 83.9 million tonnes this August, accounting for 56% of world output and rising 0.5% on August, 2021. In other parts of Asia, Indian crude steel production rose 1.2% but Japanese production fell 7.4% and South Korean production fell 0.4%.
European Union 27 countries production fell 13.3%, with Germany, its largest producer, producing 2.3% less on last August. North American production fell 5.4% with US output down 7.1%. Other significant changes compared to last August include production declines in Turkey (-21.0%) and Brazil (-11.3%), and an increase in Iran (+64.7%).
Based on reported import licenses, US long products imports rose 14% from 283,000 short tons in August, 2021 to 323,000 tons last month. Rebar imports rose by the largest volume compared to other long products categories due mainly to higher volumes from Turkey.
Long products imports in the first eight months of 2022 were 38% higher than in the same period last year with the highest volume increases coming from wire rod (+58%), rebar (+32%) and parallel flange sections (+33%).
US long products import licenses
January 2015 to August 2022
Short tons
Stacks of rebar in storage at Badische Stahlwerke, Kehl. Germany, 20.04.2016, from Worldsteel Image Library
