In its latest Short Range Outlook (SRO), published last week, Worldsteel expects world steel demand to be 1,815 million metric tonnes in 2023 and 1,849 million tonnes in 2024. The new forecast expects a 1.8% steel demand growth in 2023 and a 1.9% increase in 2024, lowering their expectations compared to their April, 2023 forecast for 2023 by 0.5%, but raising their forecast for 2024 by 0.2%.
China accounted for 52% of world steel demand in 2022 and is expected to account for 52% in 2023 and 51% inn 2024. Chinese steel demand is expected to increase by 2.0% in 2023 and remain flat in 2024.
After a 3.2% decline in steel demand in 2022, steel demand outside of China is forecast to increase by 1.6% in 2023 and rise again by 4.0% in 2024. European Union plus UK demand is now expected to decline by 5.1% in 2023 but rise by 5.8% in 2024. USMCA demand is forecast to rise by 0.9% in 2023 and by 1.5% in 2024.
Based on reported import licenses, US long products imports fell 14% from 274,000 short tons in September, 2022 to 235,000 tons last month. According to import licenses, rebar imports showed the highest decline, with volumes falling mainly from Turkey, but also from Algeria and Mexico. Rebar imports from Egypt rose significantly, however.
Long products imports in the first nine months of 2023 were 18% lower than in the same period last year with wire rod showing the highest volume and percent decline (-582,000 tons and -41%).
US long products import licenses
January 2015 to September 2023
Short tons
“Hot-dip galvanized reinforcing steel in accordance with general building authority approval” by Trissi1234, CC BY-SA 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
Based on reported import licenses, US flat products imports rose 15% from 641,000 short tons in September, 2022 to 737,000 tons in September, 2023. Hot roll imports increased by the highest volume with imports up from significantly from South Korea, but also from Japan and Brazil. In contrast, cold roll imports fell from Taiwan, Mexico, and the UK.
Flat products imports in the first nine months of 2023 were 20% lower than in the same period last year with hot roll -18%, hot dip galvanized -26%, cold roll -27%, and cut plate +24%.
Worldsteel reported August crude steel production in China at 86.4 million metric tonnes, 3.2% higher than in August, 2022. Chinese production in the first eight months of 2023 was 2.3% higher than in the first eight months of 2022.
Data from China’s General Administration of Customs show China’s August net finished steel exports (exports minus imports) rose 45% compared to August last year. Net finished steel exports in the first eight months of 2023 was 39% higher than in the same period last year.
China produced 86.4 million tonnes in August, accounting for 57% of world output and rising 3.2% on August, 2022. World crude steel production outside China rose 0.9% compared to last August. Significant changes outside China include higher production in India (+17.4%) and Russia (estimated +8.9%), as well as lower production in Iran (-24.1%) and South Korea (-5.9%).
Crude steel production in the first nine months of 2023 was 0.3% higher than in the same period last year.
Based on reported import licenses, US long products imports rose 14% from 319,000 short tons in August, 2022 to 362,000 tons last month. According to import licenses, wire rod imports showed the highest increase with volumes increasing mainly from Algeria and Egypt. Rebar imports also increased significantly from the same countries.
Long products imports in the first eight months of 2023 were 19% lower than in the same period last year with wire rod showing the highest volume (-546,000 tonnes) and percentage (-40%) decline.
US long products import licenses
January 2015 to August 2023
Short tons
“Construction of the foundation for a Senvion 3.2M114 wind turbine in the Kreuzstetten IV wind farm” by Kwerdenker, CC BY-SA 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
