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Tony Taccone

A strategy consultant to steel companies for 20 years and a founding partner of First River Consulting, a strategy consulting boutique. Follows the steel industry globally and proudly admits to being a steel nerd.

Posts by Tony Taccone

“The sky is falling, should we run for it?”

January 23, 2009

On January 21, I appeared on a steel outlook panel at the inaugural AMM State of Steel conference in NY.  My presentation, “The sky is falling, should we run for it,” appears below.  The main point I made was that while 2009 will be a very difficult year, we should not be surprised that steel […]

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2009 will be tough for steel – but how tough?

January 6, 2009

2009 will be a difficult year for the global steel industry.  How bad it gets and what happens on the other side of the global slowdown is impossible to predict. But there is no shortage of observers willing to paint a bleak picture.  In a recent article in the Financial Times, Peter Marsh summed up the […]

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GDP and steel demand in Europe

November 23, 2008

In response to a presentation I posted recently on this blog, I received the following questions from an investment firm based in Switzerland. 1) Is your indicated correlation also applicable to Europe only, i.e. could it be used to forecast steel demand in Europe? 2) Europe is expected to grow below 2,5% real GDP for […]

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ArcelorMittal, Gerdau, Gerdau Ameristeel, Ternium Q3 results

November 6, 2008

Financial results for Q3 2008 have been reported by ArcelorMittal, Gerdau, Gerdau Ameristeel, and Ternium. Operating income per ton and EBITDA per ton can be found on the Nerds of Steel earnings spreadsheet. Press releases announcing quarterly results for each company can be found by following the appropriate link below. ArcelorMittal’s Q3 results. Gerdau’s Q3 […]

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Steel industry capacity utilization falls below 70%

November 5, 2008

Data just released by the AISI shows raw steel capacity utilization at 67.3% during the last week of October, down from close to 90% a couple months ago.  How does utilization below 70% compare to previous recessions?  And how long might it last?  A review of historical data is always a good place to start […]

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US Steel Q3 results

October 29, 2008

Yesterday US Steel announced Q3 2008 earnings.  According to the press release this was the most profitable quarter in the company’s history.  EBITDA was $229/ton and operating income was $206/ton.  You can see US Steel’s 2007 and 2008 quarterly EBITDA and operating income per ton and compare the company’s performance to some of its peers […]

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